{"id":18911,"date":"2020-09-17T13:05:41","date_gmt":"2020-09-17T07:20:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dorjegurung.com\/blog\/?p=18911"},"modified":"2026-03-13T22:01:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T22:01:22","slug":"covid19-nepal-sept-5-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/2020\/09\/covid19-nepal-sept-5-update\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Nepal: Sept. 5 Status Update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the complete lack of strategy on the part of our Government to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, the end of the four-month long lockdown 1.0 on July 21 did NOT bode well for the country. One of the things I have been doing on Twitter is to expose that by sharing my own observations <\/em>of the progress of the pandemic offering my own observations. The observations are based mostly on charts I generate using the Google Drive spreadsheet I maintain. My data source are the situation reports published by the Ministry of Health and Population.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reproduced below, with some minor corrections, please find the content of the tweet thread I shared on September 5<\/a>. I preserved the format of the tweets, hence the appearance, as well as the language. (I opted to do this — over embedding the tweets — for ease of viewing the charts. Please don’t mind the hastags and the language!)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/
\nAs a #ScienceTeacher, 2 important #transferable #skills I sought to impart were:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. asking Q’s, &<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. drawing #EvidenceBased #conclusions\/making #DataDriven arguments.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Here’s me asking some questions & drawing TENTATIVE conclusions abt these & other #COVID19 charts. #Nepal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2\/
    \nIn June, cases had begin showing #ExponentialGrowth (upward sloping blue line in d log scale chart below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Even GoN on June 18 predicted cases to reach 40K my mid-July. Extrapolation conforming to that prediction resulted in d 2nd chart below. #Nepal #COVID19 #COVID19Nepal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .3\/
    \nBut when it DIDN’T continue on that path, d optimistic (though unrealistic!) possibility was for the curve to flattened (yellow curve [in chart 1 above]). The Government of #Nepal did announce on June 22 (    https:\/\/kathmandupost.com\/national\/2020\/06\/22\/pcr-test-kits-procured-by-nepal-army-incompatible-with-most-nepali-laboratories<\/a>) that they would be conducting 400K tests “in the coming days.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .4\/
    \nBUT neither happened!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What happened instead was #DetectionRate starting to drop (BLUE line image 1) & total cases starting to level off leading to a slow down in the #ExponentialGrowth (https:\/\/twitter.com\/Dorje_sDooing\/status\/1298633569699471360?s=20 [see below for a reproduction]) before picking up again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    #Nepal #COVID #COVID19 #COVID19Nepal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a>
    Incidentally, the error was made by the reporting bodies, NOT me! It came to light later that they counted many of the positive cases multiple times.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The following are a reproduction of the relevant tweets one of which is linked to in the above tweet. (They are from Aug. 26.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    How has the number of #COVID19 cases in #Nepal been progressing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As haphazard as our testing has been & therefore d results, here it is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1st 1K, took 123 days.
    \n2nd 1K took just 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1st 2K, took 128 days.
    \n2nd 2K took just 7 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1st 4K took 135 days.
    \n2nd 4K only 13 days.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    .If you looked closely at the table you may have noticed an irregularity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1st 8K (135+13) 148 days
    \n2nd 8K 18 days
    \n3rd 8K 35 days
    \n4th 8 K 12 days<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Wondering why? Check chart for the answer.
    \n(Hint: Check pattern in testing over the relevant period.) #Nepal #COVID #COVID19Nepal<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .5\/
    \nSo naturally, d question is why did NEITHER happen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There’s probably a few different reasons behind that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    BUT,
    \n1. as limited as our data is, &
    \n2. as random & haphazard they are,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I’ll be making an argument based on them. #Nepal #COVID #COVID19 #COVID19Nepal #CovidData<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .6\/
    \n1stly, notice how d drop in tests mirrors retardation in d growth of cases (image 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2ndly, notice how both rising #DetectionRate (image 2) & #PositivityRate (image 3) start on a downward trend also around d same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Not surprising ofc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    #Nepal #COVID19 #COVID19Nepal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .7\/
    \nBUT,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    during that same period, as tests numbers are dropping, tests\/confirmed case ALSO trends downward generally (with a little blip in d beginning of July when it trends upward for abt 9 days).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This HINTS at cases in d population rising, not falling! #Nepal #COVID19Nepal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .8\/
    \nUnfortunately, far from increasing testing to reach d 400K goal & implementing a rigid mitigation strategy to avoid hitting d predicted 40K cases by mid-July, their strategy was leading to a gradual downward trend in d numbers in quarantine & isolation during d same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .9\/
    \nGoing back to d virus actually spreading in the population but d detection & positivity rates NOT indicating that…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The explanation could lie in WHO they are testing &\/or d LOW testing rate. #Nepal #COVID #COVID19 #covid19nepal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I rounded that off with a tweet quoting another thread I had made a number of days earlier.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    .10\/10
    \nFollowing is clear NOW
    \n1. curve could’ve been flattened easier, but didn’t
    \n2. so contending with a 2nd & deadlier wave: w\/ increasing testing rate, detection & positivity rates are increasing, & tests\/confirmed case is decreasing.     #Nepal<\/a> #COVID19<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/gNnbERyzc9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u2014 Dorje Gurung, ScD (h.c.) (@Dorje_sDooing) September 5, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The next day I tweeted<\/a> the following to highlight the fact that the REAL doubling rates are lower than predicted by the data.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Cases, doubling rate (DR in days) & actual<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1\/8: Cases: 20.3K; DR: 55. 2X on 1\/9, 31 days later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    8\/8: Cases: 22.6K; DR: 38. 2X on 5\/9, 29 days later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    21\/8: Cases: 30.4K; DR: 27, & 5\/9: Cases: 45K; DR: 25. When will they double? Will depend on strategy of GoN!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    #COVID19 #Nepal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


    \nWhat do you think?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NB<\/strong>. (Sept. 18, 2020) I have replaced the original chart demonstrating the flattening of the curve as an extrapolation on the log scale chart of cases (in yellow) as a curve that peaks and then slopes downward. Of course, when the curve is flattened, the rate at which the total cases increase slows and ultimately turns into a plateau as shown in the current version of the chart. Apologies for the mistake!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    (If interested in other blog post about the status of COVID-19 in Nepal, click here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A reproduction of my Twitter, COVID-19 status, update for Nepal that I made on September 5. I look at the progress of the pandemic mostly until the end of July by discussing what the data show, as limited and haphazard as they are.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":18978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"COVID19 Nepal: Sept 5 Status Update","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[152,661],"tags":[631,632,645,648,646,644,647],"class_list":["post-18911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kathmandu-mustang-nepal","category-covid19-nepal","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-detection-rate","tag-pandemic","tag-pcr-test","tag-positivity-rate","tag-second-wave"],"blocksy_meta":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/COVID19-Nepal-Sept5-update-featimage.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2Jbro-4V1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18911"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18911\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29710,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18911\/revisions\/29710"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dorjegurung.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}