The Chameleon’s Gambit: Survival Over Substance in Nepal’s Politics

A chameleon changes color to adapt to the physical environment around it—more often than not to save itself, not because it loves the environment.

Following the September 2025 fall of the government, Nepali Congress leader Gagan Thapa successfully leveraged the 'reformer' label to seize leadership from Sher Bahadur Deuba. But while the face has changed, the soul of the party remains the same: a bastion of Khas-Arya privilege. Despite the rhetoric of a 'New Nepal,' the upcoming 2026 elections reveal a familiar reality, with over 52% of the party’s tickets handed to Khas-Arya males, leaving marginalized groups like Dalits with a near-invisible 0.6% representation.

When Gagan Thapa, General Secretary of the Nepali Congress, began posting videos on X (formerly Twitter) shortly after the Generation Z protests in September 2025, his intentions were transparent. Even without hitting “play,” the strategy was clear. On September 12, I shared my perspective on a video I encountered: “A chameleon changes color to adapt to the physical environment around it—more often than not to save itself, not because it loves the environment.”

This is a crucial lesson for Nepalis: whenever a leader from a major political party, such as Gagan Thapa, speaks, remember that their “evolution” is usually a survival tactic. For 250 years, the Khas-Arya political hegemony has been a primary source of stagnation in Nepal. Despite the polished “blabber” in those videos, Thapa’s actions since then fail to recognize or dismantle this systemic reality.

The Enablers of the Status Quo

Unsurprisingly, many in Nepal remain die-hard supporters of such figures, while others are easily manipulated by well-produced rhetoric. Under my post, I highlighted two journalists who exemplify this trend. One claimed that “nothing will go wrong by just listening to him.”

I disagree. Listening to and giving a platform to a leader who has enabled the current state of the country by failing to act when they had the power to do so is, in itself, a form of complicity. The performance didn’t stop with Thapa. Bishwa Prakash Sharma—another General Secretary—released his own video. Despite being an MP, Sharma maintains a full-time “side gig” as a talk show host. At this stage, their words are functionally pointless.

Politics in Nepal has been so thoroughly corrupted that when politicians cunningly gaslight the population for survival, the public often mistakes it for being “smart.”

The Pretense of Reform vs. The Reality of Power

What was the result of all those videos and interviews? Thapa and Sharma took the “bold” step of calling for a convention and holding elections for a new central committee, ostensibly in defiance of President Sher Bahadur Deuba. Yet, if we look at the results, we see that the Nepali Congress remains a party of, for, and by Khas-Arya men.

Table 1: Nepali Congress Leadership Composition

NameRoleGenderEthnicity/Social Group
Gagan ThapaPresidentMaleKhas Arya
Bishwa Prakash SharmaVice-presidentMaleKhas Arya
Pushpa BhusalVice-presidentFemaleKhas Arya
Pradeep PaudelGeneral SecretaryMaleKhas Arya
Gururaj GhimireGeneral SecretaryMaleKhas Arya

While the Joint Secretary positions (categorical seats) show a superficial attempt at diversity to meet quotas, the real power remains concentrated.

Table 2. The Joint Secretaries

NameGenderCategory/Social Group
Dila SangroulaFemaleWomen
Prakash RasailiMaleDalit
Bahadur Singh LamaMaleIndigenous (Adibasi Janajati)
Udaya Shumsher RanaMaleKhas Arya
Mukta Kumari YadavFemaleMadhesi
Farmullah MansoorMaleMuslim
Yogendra ChaudharyMaleTharu
Karna Bahadur BudhaMaleBackward Regions

The Statistical Erasure of Marginalized Groups

The most damning evidence of this systemic exclusion is found in the overall breakdown of the team. While Khas-Aryas represent only about 30% of Nepal’s population, they occupy 64.2% of the seats in this “reformed” structure.

Table 3. Team Breakdown by Social Group

CategoryTotal MembersPercentage (%)
Khas Arya8664.2%
Indigenous (Janajati)2216.4%
Newar53.7%
Madhesi96.7%
Dalit64.5%
Tharu32.2%
Muslim21.5%
Minority/Other10.8%
Total134100%

As for gender, while females are a majority in the population, male representation is more than double that of female.

Table 4. Team Breakdown by Gender

GenderOffice-BearersCentral MembersTotal SeatsPercentage
Male11799067.16%
Female2424432.84%
Total13121134100%

This disparity in social group is even more pronounced among male members, where 70% are Khas-Arya. While there is slightly more diversity among female members, the overarching structure remains a bastion of caste-based and gendered privilege.

Table 5. Male Team Member Breakdown by Social Group

Social GroupMembers (N)Percentage (%)
Khas Arya6370.0%
Indigenous (Janajati)910.0%
Newar44.4%
Madhesi77.8%
Dalit44.4%
Tharu22.2%
Muslim11.1%
Total90100%

Table 6. Female Team Member Breakdown by Social Group

Social GroupMembers (N)Percentage (%)
Khas Arya2352.3%
Indigenous (Janajati)1329.5%
Newar12.3%
Madhesi24.5%
Dalit24.5%
Tharu12.3%
Muslim12.3%
Minority/Other12.3%
Total44100%

This exclusionary pattern extends to the upcoming elections. Of the 165 First Past The Post (FPTP) candidates fielded for the House of Representatives, 52.1%, a majority, are Khas-Arya.

Table 7. Nepal Congress Candidates for the 165 FPTP Members of the House of Representatives

Social/Ethnic ClusterMaleFemaleTotal% of Tickets
Khas Arya8068652.1%
Adibasi Janajati3023219.4%
Newar8195.5%
Madhesi2722917.6%
Tharu5053.1%
Muslim3031.8%
Dalit1010.6%
Total15411165100%

While the party’s rhetoric has become more polished, the numbers show a regression. Between 2022 and 2026, there was a 10% drop in Khas-Arya candidates, yet they remain the overwhelming majority, effectively gatekeeping power.

Table 8. Nepal Congress Candidates Between 2022 and 2026.

YearKhas AryaJanajatiNewarMadhesiTharuMuslimDalit
202262.0%14.2%3.8%12.0%7.0%1.0%0.0%
202652.1%19.3%5.5%17.6%3.1%1.8%0.6%

This exclusionary pattern reveals a stark reality: in 2022, the party didn’t need a broad base because its alliances with the Maoist Center, Unified Socialist, and LSP-Nepal ensured a disproportionately high success rate—winning 33.9% of total seats despite a narrow candidate pool. Today, the “new” Congress under Thapa and Sharma is simply pivoting to a new partner.

The Cycle of Political Survival

Despite the “Generation Z” protests of September 2025—which toppled the Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli government at the cost of 76 lives—the Nepali Congress is reportedly in talks to form an alliance with Oli’s CPN-UML for the upcoming March 5 elections. This move is a betrayal of the youth who stood against the very nepotism and corruption that both Oli and the Congress leadership symbolize.

While Thapa and Sharma use social media to perform “evolution,” their willingness to join hands with Oli proves that their primary objective is the same “musical chairs” for power that has plagued Nepal for decades.

As a commentary on Facebook by someone called Rajib Khatry (translated via AI) poignantly noted:

After watching Gagan Thapa’s last two videos:

Gagan has clearly admitted that “we made a mistake.” He even stated that there is a stain on the face, and simply wiping the mirror will not suffice. Forget the talk of [KP] Oli and [Sher Bahadur] Deuba; Gagan Thapa is the leader who has most severely betrayed this recent generation.

While Nepal’s actual condition was one of despair, he continued to speak of hope. After Oli, he was the one who most heavily traded in dreams. He refused to accept the despair. He remained a hypocrite, showing hope in the midst of hopelessness. He continued to speak with pretense. Being optimistic was good, but optimism detached from reality only taught people how to live in a delusion. Hope that deviated from reality only caused mental trauma to the youth. By showing hope beyond the realm of reality, he is spreading “poison” in society. Therefore, this was an explosion that occurred after the delusion shattered. This was a “bomb” of poison.

For the past few years, whenever I saw anyone writing that Gagan is a leader of hope, many thoughts would cross my mind. What could they possibly be hoping for? When did the desire to be optimistic awaken? When will his cycle of hope end? Will they hope again after it ends, or not? Ultimately, Gagan’s hope has exhausted itself. The burden of Gagan’s dreams crushed him! The misdeeds of people like Gagan did not just crush them; the country suffered a great loss! Therefore, history will not forgive Gagan.

Conclusion: The Disaster of Leadership

In the end, what these leaders want is what every person in the traditional power structure wants: power by any means necessary. So-called leaders such as Thapa have had no meaningful life or career outside of politics, having been involved since their college days in the 1990s. They have little to show for these decades apart from a collection of party titles and social media posts.

This lack of real-world experience is why they cannot truly “lead.” Leadership itself has been the biggest disaster to befall Nepal. Thapa’s videos were not a sign of growth; they were an attempt to stay relevant.

A chameleon changes color to protect itself—not because it loves the forest. While humans can change, expecting a radical transformation from a 25-year pattern of professional maneuvering is unrealistic. For me to believe the rhetoric, it must be demonstrated through action. The exclusionary composition of the new Nepali Congress and the 0.6% Dalit representation prove that, beneath the new colors, the chameleon remains exactly the same.

What do you think?

PS. Part of this blog post came from an Instagram post I made on Oct. 26, 2025. Additionally, I got help from Google’s AI Gemini composing it.

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